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HAPPY ST PATRICK’S DAY!
In the News
- House GOP budget: Overhauls Medicare
- House GOP budget: Repeals Obamacare
- Obama’s week: Press economic case
- Israel election primer: Game of thrones
- Iran confronts U.S. at talks: GOP letter
- UN monitor: Iran worsening on rights
- WH blasts McConnell AG vote “unconscionable” delay
- Boehner-Pelosi plan “doc fix”
- Federal agencies: $125B in improper payments in 2014
- Talks with Syria’s Assad? Errr never, U.S. says
House GOP Budget: Overhauls Medicare
• House Republicans today will unveil a proposed budget for 2016 that partly privatizes Medicare, turns Medicaid into block grants to the states, repeals the Affordable Care Act and reaches balance in 10 years (NYT, TRNS, me)
• Monday, President Obama tried to get ahead of the debate. “II can tell you that if the budget maintains pre-sequester funding, then we would actually be spending less on pre-K to 12th grade in America’s schools in terms of federal support than we were back in 2000,” he said in a speech to the Council of the Great City Schools
• Congressional budgets don’t have the force of law but set overall spending levels for the coming fiscal year. Under congressional rules, a budget can’t be filibustered in the Senate, so Republicans would bear most of the responsibility if they failed to pass one
• House Budget Committee members previewed their plans in an unusual, campaign-style video on Monday. The plan envisions a remaking of the federal govt. Future recipients of Medicare would be offered voucherlike “premium support” to pay for private insurance rather than govt-provided health care (Democratic heads explode)
Repeals Obamacare
• Spending on Medicaid would be cut substantially over 10 years, with the money turned into block grants to state govts, which in turn would have much more flexibility in deciding how it’s allocated. The budget “repeals all of Obamacare,” said Rep Diane Black (R-TN), the same day the Obama admin announced that the law had provided coverage to 16.4 previously uninsured people (NYT, me)
• To placate advocates of the military who say strict budget caps are hurting national defense, the House budget adds “emergency” war spending through the “overseas contingency operations” account, which doesn’t count against the spending limits
• The budget will also include language that orders members of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee to draft a “fairer, simpler tax code”
• And it will include parliamentary language – called “reconciliation” – aimed at allowing legislation to repeal the ACA to pass the Senate with a simple majority. If that bill is passed, it will still be subject to a presidential veto
• Even before the Senate plan is unveiled, deep rifts are appearing. Sen John McCain (R-AZ), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, reiterated his demand Monday that any budget raise military spending well above the statutory caps
Obama’s Week: Press Economic Case
• President Obama plans to devote much of his week to laying out an alternative approach to the GOP’s budget plan: one that would increase spending on domestic programs such as education and health care. Obama met at the WH on Monday with school leaders from cities to discuss the need for education investments and reforms (NYT, me)
• On Wednesday, Obama will go to Cleveland for a speech on his economic agenda, pressing his case that at a time of financial recovery, the govt must do more to spread prosperity to middle class Americans who have seen few of its benefits
• The events present an opportunity for Obama to portray Republicans as shortsighted and even meanspirited as he looks ahead to battles over whether and how to replace a decade-long set of spending caps and cuts known as sequestration
• In his budget plan unveiled last month, Obama proposed raising the caps in the fiscal year beginning in Oct by about $75 billion – split evenly between military and domestic programs. It was an attempt to lay the groundwork for a spending deal between Republicans – national security spending – and Democrats – domestic programs
• Republicans will present a plan that balances the budget within a decade, so many of them are loath to lift spending limits. But some GOP defense hawks, like Sen Lindsey Graham (R-SC), advocate raising national security spending, even if they have to agree to domestic spending increases. The WH is trying to capitalize on those divisions
• The House committee on Benghazi has given Hillary Clinton an additional two weeks to respond to a subpoena asking for her private emails on Libya and the 2012 terrorist attacks. Republicans on the committee would still prefer to have her server (good luck) (Politico, me)
Israel Election Primer: A Game of Thrones
• Israel votes today. How does coalition building work? No party is likely to win a majority of seats. Israel’s president, Reuven Rivlin, consults with the leaders of every party represented in the 120-seat parliament as to their preference for PM, and then chooses the legislator who he believes has the best chance of putting together a coalition (Reuters, TRNS, me)
• The nominee, who doesn’t have to be the head of the party that won the most votes, has up to 42 days to form a govt before the president asks another politician to try
• What sort of coalition could be formed? Current PM Benjamin Netanyahu could form a govt with a clutch of ultranationalist, Jewish Orthodox and centrist parties that have either pledged their support or not ruled it out. The center-left could assemble a narrow coalition, although the math is harder
• If Netanyahu wins, what about policy? Probably more tough talks on the need to halt Iran’s nuclear program and strong opposition to what he says would be a bad deal between world powers and Iran. Most Jewish settlement building is likely to continue in defiance of international condemnation
• Zionist Union-led govt? Labor leader Isaac Herzog has said he’d explore ways to resume peace talks with the Palestinians. The party has stopped short of calling for a total freeze on settlement building. Zionist Union made economic reform a major element of its campaign, promising to lower accommodation prices with a “fair rent” law and reduce costs for education and health care
• PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday said that as long as he’s the leader, a Palestinian state wouldn’t be established, reversing his support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (NYT) / Raw vid: Netanyahu votes today in Israeli election (AP)
Any Unexpected Factors?
• Parties representing Israel’s Arab minority have for the first time formed a united list. Voters choose party lists, rather than individual candidates. Currently polling at around 13 seats, which could make them the third largest group. It would be the first time in Israel’s history that Arab parties have held such sway. (Reuters, me)
• Yesh Atid – centrist group formed by former talk show host Yair Lapid in 2012 – is polling 12-13 seats, but argues that the surveys don’t fully capture its support among young urbanites. It won a surprising 19 seats in the 2013 elections
• Moshe Kahlon, a former communications minister praised for having brought cell phone charges down dramatically, has formed a center-right group that’s currently predicted to win around 10 seats. He could either side with Netanyahu or with the center-left, putting him in a possible kingmaker role. He spurned an offer to be Netanyahu’s finance minister on Monday
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reappeared Monday after 10 unexplained days out of public view. “It would be boring without gossip,” he said, smiling easily before TV cameras. He looked relaxed, if pale. Had it been flu? We may never know. Putin met the president of Kyrgyzstan in St Petersburg on Monday (Reuters, me)
Iran Confronts U.S. at Talks: GOP Letter
• Iranian diplomats twice confronted their American counterparts about an open letter from 47 Republican senators who warned that any nuclear deal could expire the day President Obama leaves office, a senior U.S. official said Monday in Switzerland (fly on wall) (AP, Politico, WaPo, me)
• But the official was dismissive of the letter’s overall effect on the talks, labeling it a “distraction,” “unhelpful,” and “ill informed and ill advised.” “These negotiations are not about the letter. These negotiations are about whether Iran can make the necessary decisions to assure the world its program is exclusively peaceful.”
• The official described the talks as “a bit of a roller coaster. One day we feel we may get there. The next day, or hour, we might feel maybe not so much. That’s why it is very difficult and challenging.”
• Iranian FM Javad Zarif was in a more upbeat mood, shouting out to reporters, “Finally, finally, we’ll get there,” as he departed for Brussels on Monday afternoon to talk with EU officials and FMs from the countries negotiating alongside the U.S. He was expected to return Monday night so talks can continue today
• Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani slammed the letter Monday. “We don’t have problems like those in the U.S.” “What the U.S. Congress did was really amateurish. Even their political experts denounced them because they undermined their own integrity. We are not going to copy their mistake.” (prob get hanged if you do)
UN Monitor: Iran Worsening on Rights
• The UN monitor said Monday that Iran’s use of the death penalty is rising and its repression of political critics is worsening despite promises by President Hassan Rouhani of a less restrictive society. Monitor Ahmed Shaheed raised the possibility that human rights in Iran could improve if progress is achieved in overall relations between Iran and Western govts (NYT, McClatchy, me)
• Iran has one of the highest execution rates in the world – 753 people in 2014 – and continues “to harass, arrest, prosecute and imprison members of civil society who express criticism of the govt or who publicly deviate from officially sanctioned narratives,” Shaheed told reporters in Geneva. He said human rights have deteriorated since Rouhani took office in 2013
• Despite positive comments on media freedom by some govt officials, Shaheed reported that 30 journalists were in prison as of the end of 2014 on charges that included vaguely worded offenses against national security, “propaganda against the system” and insulting govt leaders
• Several draft laws under consideration in Iran would only add to the constraints on rights, Shaheed said, referring to measures that would tighten control of media, lawyers and non governmental organizations, and limit employment of women
• Members of minority groups, including Baha’is, continue to face persecution and discrimination in Iran. “Despite statements from high-ranking officials that Baha’is are entitled to citizenship rights, they continue to face discrimination, arrest and arbitrary detention in connection with their religion,” Shaheed said. He noted that 100 Baha’is are currently in prison
• Jeffrey Williams, accused of shooting two officers last week in Ferguson, wasn’t targeting police or aiming at demonstrators during a late-night protest, his lawyer said Monday. Attorney Jerryl Christmas also claimed police may have used excessive force on Williams, citing bruises on his body (AP, me)
WH Blasts McConnell AG Vote “Unconscionable” Delay
• The WH blasted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday for holding up confirmation of President Obama’s nominee for AG, arguing the “unconscionable delay” was a stain on the Kentucky Republican’s leadership (AP, Hill, TRNS, me)
• McConnell warned Sunday that he wouldn’t hold a vote on Loretta Lynch’s confirmation before the Senate finishes a human trafficking bill that has hit a roadblock over a provision regarding funding for abortions. WH spox Josh Earnest said Monday, “This is not a reflection of a flaw in the bill. It’s a reflection of inept leadership.”
• In a sharp rebuke, the WH appeared to question whether Obama can trust McConnell and his fellow GOP leaders and “whether their word is good with the president.” Earnest pointed out that McConnell had argued last year that Lynch’s confirmation should wait until the new GOP-run Senate was seated in Jan, but was now claiming that it was Dems who were delaying
• Some Democrats have argued they overlooked the abortion language when they first voted for the legislation. They say that it was not included on a list of changes to the bill that was submitted to them by Republicans but was instead snuck into the legislation. They also say the provision goes further than previously in restricting new funding
• Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on the Senate floor Monday compared McConnell’s delaying move to hostage-taking. Sen John Cornyn (R-TX), who introduced the bill, suggested Democrats were trying to return the Senate “to its dysfunctional nature” and accused them of “hypocrisy.”
• Rep Elijah Cummings (D-MD), top Dem on the House Oversight Committee, said Monday that Secret Service director Joseph Clancy wasn’t briefed for five days that two senior agents crashed into a WH security barrier after a night of alleged drinking. (stunning) They interrupted a response to a potential bomb threat (Politico, me)
Boehner-Pelosi Plan Doc Fix
• House committees could introduce a $200 billion package as soon as this week to permanently change the way Medicare pays doctors and to extend a children’s health program for two years. House leaders, including Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are personally involved in pursuing the deal (Politico, me)
• Details are being worked out, but the plan would permanently eliminate the Sustainable Growth Rate, the outdated formula that calls for frequent and deep cuts to Medicare providers, and replace it with a new payment system. It’s a priority for both parties. The current “doc fix” expires on 1 April when physicians would see a 21% cut in payments
• The plan would also extend funding for two years for the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which is set to expire in September. Instead, it would continue at the elevated payment rates approved under Obamacare
&&&
• Even if the House approves the bill, the Senate could be a problem, and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) made no commitment to Pelosi in a conversation. But he said he would present the legislation to his caucus if she and Boehner can get it through the House
• The deal would be only partially paid for in the first decade – sticking point for conservatives. Lawmakers would pay for $70 billion of the total package, with most of the savings at the back-end of the 10-year budget window. Republicans will argue that the Medicare reforms included will generate deeper savings in the second 10-year window
• About half of the $70 billion would come from cuts to health care providers, such as hospitals, acute care providers and insurers. The other half through cuts to Medicare beneficiaries, such as additional means testing for high-income seniors. That’s a likely problem for some Democrats who have long resisted any cuts that would hit seniors on Medicare
• FCC chair Tom Wheeler will appear before five congressional committees (!) over the next two weeks, facing off with Republicans over his net neutrality plan. First up: House Oversight Committee today (oh goody) (Politico, me)
Federal Agencies: $125B in Improper Payments in 2014
• Federal agencies made $125 billion in improper payments last year, including tax credits to people who didn’t qualify, Medicare payments for treatments that might not be necessary and unemployment benefits for people who were actually working, a report by the Government Accountability Office said Monday (AP, me)
• The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs held a hearing Monday on reducing improper payments by improving death records held by Social Security Admin. Social Security has no death record for 6.5 million people who would be at least 112 years old – IG report. As of last fall, there were only 42 people that old in the entire world…
• Only 13 of the people are still getting Social Security benefits. But for others, their Social Security numbers are still active, so a number could be used to report wages, open bank accounts, obtain credit cards or obtain fraudulent tax refunds
• Social Security maintains a database of people who have died called the Death Master File, or DMF. Social Security makes mistakes by adding about 9,000 names to the death list each year of people who are still living. The impact on a person’s life can be devastating
• Judy Rivers, a communications specialist living in Alabama, told the committee that Social Security has twice listed her as dead, in 2001 and 2008. (impressive feat) She couldn’t get a job, a back account or a credit card. She couldn’t rent an apartment. “I had to move into my car,” Rivers said
Improper Payments
• David Mader, controller at President Obama’s budget office, said “The time has come for a more aggressive strategy to reduce the levels of improper payments we currently are seeing.” He outlined several proposals in Obama’s proposed budget for next year, including budget increases at the IRS to combat fraud (nonstarter with GOP) (AP, me)
• Medicare’s payments to doctors and hospitals had the most improper payments, at $45 billion. The report said many were caused by insufficient documentation for home health claims and errors on medical necessity forms for hospital patients
• The Earned Income Tax Credit provides payments to low-income families through the tax code. The program had nearly $18 billion in improper payments, an error rate of more than 27%. Problems verifying incomes before the payments were issued
• Medicare Advantage, which allowed older Americans to get their Medicare benefits through private health plans: $12.2 billion. Medicaid: $17.5 billion. Unemployment insurance: $5.6 billion. Social Security: $3 billion. Supplement Security Income: $5 billion
• The chair of the House Veterans Affairs Committee Monday night accused the IG and other officials at the VA of withholding reports from his panel, despite pledges to be transparent (AP, me)
Talks With Syria’s Assad? Errr Never
• State Dept spox Jen Psaki on Monday said that while the U.S. accepted the need for representatives of President Bashar al Assad’s govt to participate in any negotiations, “it would not be and would never be – and it wasn’t what Secretary Kerry was intending to imply – that that would be Assad himself.” “We continue to believe … that there’s no future for Assad in Syria.”
• Kerry on Sunday told CBS that negotiations would be necessary to resolve outstanding conflicts in Syria between ISIS, other rebel groups and those loyal to the Assad regime. “what we’re pushing for is to get
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