TRNS News Notes is brought to you by Victoria Jones. Victoria Jones is the Chief White House correspondent and global analyst of the Washington DC based Talk Radio News Service, where her insight and analysis are made available to over 400 news talk radio stations around the country and internationally.

TUESDAY NIGHT MASSACRE

GOP MIDTERM ROUT

  • GOP seizes Senate
  • It’s not over yet
  • Key Senate races
  • GOP gaining seats in House
  • No Obama pivot after midterms
  • Ballot initiatives + Keystone
  • Voting problems reported
  • Key governors’ races
  • Is U.S. widening Syria air campaign?
  • Will U.S. troops stay longer in Afghanistan?
  • Fast & Furious document dump
  • Judge strikes Kansas same-sex marriage ban

 

GOP Seizes Senate
• Republicans seized control of the U.S. Senate and expanded their grip on the House of Representatives and governorships in the 2014 election, marking a dramatic midterm rout that cut deep into territory that President Obama and the Democratic Party won by commanding margins only two years ago (Politico, NYT, WaPo, FT, TRNS, me)

• With several Democratic-held Senate seats still up for grabs, the GOP has already captured more than the six seats required to take the upper chamber: Arkansas, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa – giving them 52 seats at current count

• Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) released a statement conceding that his party had lost control of the chamber and congratulating his GOP counterpart, just-reelected Sen Mitch McConnell (R-KY). “The message from voters is clear, they want us to work together,” Reid said. Reid will run for Minority Leader

• President Obama is expected to hold a press conference today, and it’s not clear how conciliatory he will be. However, he’s invited congressional leaders to a meeting in the WH on Friday, before he heads to Asia for eight days
It’s Not Over Yet
• It may take days – or weeks – to measure the full scale of the Republican victory. A Senate race in Louisiana is headed to a runoff vote on 6 Dec (Mary Landrieu (D) could lose), while the slow-counting state of Alaska may take days to resolve its race

• Mitch McConnell, typically a sharp-elbowed partisan, struck an uncharacteristically conciliatory note in his moment of triumph. “Just because we have a two-party system doesn’t mean we have to be in perpetual conflict.”

• A few bright spots for Democrats: In Michigan, Rep Gary Peters (D) dispatched GOP Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land in a race Republicans once hoped could break their way. New Hampshire Sen Jeanne Shaheen turned back a stiff challenge from former MA Sen Scott Brown

• Kentucky SecState Alison Lundergan Grimes, long neck and neck in her race against McConnell, ultimately lost by nearly 16 points. As the night began, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) gave a grim prognosis for the evening ahead: “It’s a difficult night. We can’t predict what will happen.” (yes we could)

Key Senate Races
• Arkansas Sen Mark Pryor, a Democrat, succumbed to a challenge from Republican Rep Tom Cotton in the once-deeply Democratic state that produced Bill Clinton. Pryor ran as a conservative Democrat, highlighting his faith (Politico, Roll Call, TRNS, NYT, Real Clear Politics, me)

• Republican Rep Cory Gardner has unseated Democratic Sen Mark Udall to win the hotly contested Colorado Senate race. Udall ran a one-note campaign on women’s reproductive rights, which missed the mood of the voters. Advocates for privacy from NSA intrusion have lost a champion

• Sen Pat Roberts fended off a challenge from independent Greg Orman and will represent Kansas for a fourth term. Roberts painted Orman as a tool of Democratic interests, even though Orman hadn’t said with whom he would caucus&&&

• In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis won a close race against Democratic Sen Kay Hagan in the most expensive Senate matchup in U.S. history, clinching the Senate majority for Republicans. Both candidates were unpopular in the polls, but Republicans poured millions to tie Hagan to President Obama

• Republican David Perdue beat Michelle Nunn to replace Sen Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, winning outright a race that many predicted would go into a runoff. His decisive victory was a sign that demographic changes in the state have yet to affect its political orientation

• Iowa Republican candidate Joni Ernst defeated Democratic Rep Bruce Braley in the race to fill the Hawkeye State’s open Senate seat. Braley got a lot of help on the campaign trail from big name Democrats but his frequent verbal missteps became a key flash point in the campaign

• It was a bad night for Democrats in some key governors’ races. They lost in Illinois (incumbent), Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine and surprisingly in Maryland. However, PA Dem Tom Wolf knocked off unpopular Gov Tom Corbett (R). Incumbent CT Gov Dan Malloy (D) is leading Tom Foley (R) at time of writing. Martha Coakley (D) went down to defeat in MA (natch) (Hill, me)
GOP Gaining Seats in House
• It’s fluid, but at time of writing, Republicans have gained 13 seats in the House of Representatives. Might have changed by the time you read this. Regardless, it’s a rout (Politico, me)

• Democrats suffered defeats in West Virginia, where longtime Rep Nick Rahall fell; in Florida, where Rep Joe Garcia went down; and in Georgia, where Rep John Barrow, the only white Democrat representing a district in the Deep South, lost his seat. In Illinois, Rep Bill Enyart, a freshman, was also ousted

• The defeats even spread to liberal districts in suburban Chicago, where Democratic Rep Brad Schneider lost, and in upstate New York, where Rep Dan Maffei fell. Democrats also suffered a crushing loss in New York, where scandal-plagued Rep Michael Grimm blew out his opponent

• GOP leaders have padded their majority to its largest since the 1940s, ahead of what’s likely to be a more challenging 2016. One bright spot for Democrats came in Florida, where Gwen Graham, a Leon County schools official and daughter of former Sen Bob Graham, defeated GOP Rep Steve Southerland

• The election threatens to increase the polarization in a chamber that’s been stifled by gridlock. (possible?) The midterm was also a test to see whether Republicans, nearly 90% of whom are white men, could add diversity. They did. They now have a black woman in their ranks: Rep Mia Love (R-UT)
No Obama Pivot After Midterms
• Don’t count on major change coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. President Obama will seek some common ground with Republicans, but there are limits to how far the president will go – and Senate Democrats will let him go (Politico, NYT, TRNS, WaPo, Reuters, me)

• Obama acknowledges that he needs to do better, and he will make modest adjustments to his staffing, messaging and legislative strategy in response. But he won’t pivot to the right, as he did after his self-proclaimed shellacking in 2010, WH officials said in interviews this week

• Obama will strike a tone of accountability and compromise during his public remarks today, promising to work with Republicans who are interested in working with him. He’s gone almost two years without a major legislative achievement, leaving him “very willing” to start cutting deals, possible on trade, corporate taxes and patent reform

• At the same time, Obama won’t back down from using his admin powers, including plans to issue an executive order on immigration that could be the most aggressive unilateral action of his presidency. He’ll adhere to a progressive agenda that will keep the base excited, position his party to win back the Senate, hold the WH in 2016 and seal his legacy (that all?)

No Charm Offensive
• Nearly six out of 10 voters Tuesday expressed negative feelings about Obama’s admin, according to exit polls. Numbers like that discouraged the president’s aides, who said they’d not done a good job getting out his record. Obama and VP Biden talked about that at a lunch last week (bit late for that?)

• Obama had long ago given up hope that he would be able to push through some of his favorite priorities before leaving office. He told a former aide several weeks ago that he knew he would never be able to expand pre-kindergarten as he once hoped, and regretted it

• But Republicans shouldn’t expect a WH charm offensive. Obama tried that in 2011, when he golfed with Speaker Boehner (R-OH) and spent weeks negotiating with him on deficit reduction. And in 2013, Obama had a series of dinners with senators. This year, Obama set aside 45 minutes every week to call a handful of GOP and Dem lawmakers (not much time)

• Obama will continue those phone sessions and meetings with congressional leadership, and he could convene broader groups of lawmakers when a bill stands a good chance of passing. But there won’t be a fresh effort at social engagement. There just isn’t enough time to build new relationships (and that’s the tragedy of his presidency)
Initiatives + Keystone
• Minimum wage ballot initiatives passed in three red-leaning states – Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakota – with an expected victory in Alaska. But it’s still very unlikely that Congress will pass President Obama’s proposed federal increase to $10.10, up from the current $7.25 (Hill, WaPo, Fox, Politico, me)

• Nearly 70% of voters in Washington DC have voted to legalize marijuana in the nation’s capital. They’ve backed a new law that allows possession and cultivation of up to two ounces of marijuana and up to six pot plants in the home. It also legalizes the retail sale of paraphernalia and allows adults to give pot to each other

• Voters rejected anti-abortion personhood amendments in North Dakota and Colorado Tuesday that would have given the unborn constitutional rights

• Republicans will command a filibuster proof Senate majority (with some Democrats) in favor of the Senate XL pipeline now – and they could be within striking distance of assembling a veto-proof bloc for the project. The GOP says Keystone will be one of the first votes in the newly GOP-controlled Senate

Voting Problems Reported
• Restrictive new voter identification laws were blamed for some voting problems, as well as machine glitches, according to news reports. Voters had problems in key states like Georgia and North Carolina that were instrumental in handing Senate control to Republicans (Hill, Politico, Fox, WaPo, AP, NYT, CNN, me)• “Across the country today, thousands of Americans faced confusion and discrimination at the ballot box, because the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act last year,” said Wade Henderson, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights

• In North Carolina, where Sen Kay Hagan (D) lost in a tight race to GOP challenger Thom Tillis, voters faced new restrictive voting laws. Some voters weren’t allowed to cast ballots because they showed up to the wrong precincts, while others were deterred by new curbs to early voting and a ban on same-day registration. Also voting machine failures

Did Fox News Violate Media Rules?
• In Georgia, voting rights groups reported massive problems with voter registrations. A state-run website used to verify voter registrations went down and phone lines were jammed. Georgia officials recently were criticized for losing 40,000 voter registrations mostly from minority voters

• In CT, Gov Dan Malloy asked for the polls to remain open an additional hour after voter registration problems were reported statewide. In FL, a court denied governor candidate Charlie Crist’s request for extended hours after reports of major delays at a polling site. Crist lost in a tight race to Gov Rick Scott (R). TX and AL also reported problems

• Fox News ran exit polls from the New Hampshire Senate race almost two hours before polls closed in that state, a move that’s likely in violation of agreed-upon rules by the media companies that commission the exit polls

• Minutes after 6 pm, Fox News ran exit polls that showed Republican Scott Brown leading Democratic Senate incumbent Jeanne Shaheen by 50% to 49% among independents. The polls in NH don’t close until 8 pm. Shaheen won
Is U.S. Widening Syria Air Campaign?

• U.S. officials on Tuesday refused to close the door on whether forces could bomb Jabhat al-Nusra after the al Qaeda affiliate defeated two moderate rebel groups in northern Syria, both of which have received training and arms from the U.S. (Hill, WaPo, me)

• “We’re watching it very closely, we’re not unmindful of the violence and deep-seated tension between these groups… but I would not get ahead of decisions that haven’t been made,” said Pentagon spox Adm John Kirby at a Pentagon briefing. Officials are monitoring the reports as well as what U.S.-provided weapons may have fallen into Jabhat al-Nusra’s hands

• Reports over the weekend said Jabhat al-Nusra is now poised to take over a vital corridor, called the Bab al-Hawa crossing, on the border with Turkey that’s used to supply those groups with military and humanitarian aid

• So far, the U.S. and a coalition of partners have only targeted ISIS and the so-called Khorasan Group. Expanding airstrikes to Jabhat al-Nusra would be an expansion of the military campaign. Moderate groups have been ticked off as they claim that both Jabhat al-Nusra and the Syrian regime are making gains against them (they are)

• On Monday, Sen John McCain (R-AZ) said Jabhat al-Nusra’s gains showed that the U.S. strategy against ISIS has been a “disaster.” He said, “Applying a half-hearted bombing campaign without seriously undertaking complementary efforts to train and assist local forces and protect civilians in Syria is simply doomed to fail.” (not wrong)

Top U.S. Commander Mulls Extending Troops’ Stay in Afghanistan
• The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan told Foreign Policy magazine he was “beginning now to take a hard look” at whether troops needed to stay longer in that country than 2016 as planned by President Obama. “I’ve got to do that analysis and we’re just starting that now,” Army Gen John Campbell said (FP, Hill, me)

• Obama’s plan calls for U.S. troops to stay in Afghanistan after the combat mission ends in Dec to train Afghan forces and continue a counterterrorism mission. U.S. forces are scheduled to be drawn down to 9,800 by Dec, then half that by end of 2015. U.S. forces would completely withdraw at the end of 2016

• Top Republicans on defense and foreign policy have urged the president to rethink that plan, given the deterioration of Iraqi security forces after U.S. troops drew down entirely in 2011

• Campbell said he has no issues with the current plan but that a delay in hammering out a bilateral security agreement between the U.S. and Afghanistan this summer might have affected the preparedness of Afghan forces

• Campbell said President Ghani feels his troops might be “six to eight months” behind schedule because of the delay. “You’ve seen it in Iraq and Syria,” Campbell said. “Conditions change on the ground and people have to make different decisions. That’s what every commander does and that’s what I’m doing.”

“Fast and Furious” Document Dump
• The Justice Dept has turned over 64,280 pages of documents on the Fast and Furious gunrunning scandal to the House Oversight and Govt Reform Committee, the panel announced Tuesday (Politico, National Review, me)

• The docs, long desired by chair Darrell Issa (R-CA), include material the Obama admin previously argued was unreleasable as it was covered by executive privilege. But earlier this year, a federal judge ultimately compelled the DoJ to send the docs to Congress

• Issa said obtaining the docs was a “victory for the legislative branch” but insisted he would continue his campaign against the DoJ and AG Eric Holder as the panel is still missing material the committee has requested

• “Since these pages still do not represent the entire universe of the documents the House of Representatives is seeking related to the Justice Dept’s cover-up of the botched gun-walking scandal that contributed to the death of a Border Patrol agent, our court case will continue,” Issa said in a statement

• In a cover letter accompanying the docs – made public by the Oversight Committee – the DoJ said tight time constraints to provide the docs may have “resulted in more redactions than the dept ultimately will want to press in this case.” Issa said he was “deeply concerned.”
Judge Strikes Down Kansas Same-Sex Marriage Ban
• A Kansas ban on same-sex marriage violates the equal protection clause of the Constitution and must be overturned, a federal judge ruled Tuesday. U.S. District Judge Daniel Crabtree granted a preliminary injunction on behalf of same-sex couples who had challenged the state’s ban on gay marriage (Reuters, TPM, me)

• He put the ruling on hold until 11 Nov to give Kansas an opportunity to appeal. The decision, if upheld, would add to more than a dozen states where same-sex marriage has become legal since the Supreme Court said on 6 Oct that it wouldn’t review recent U.S. appeals court decisions that struck down state bans

• Crabtree said the stay could end sooner if the state informs the court that it won’t ask for an appeals court review. The Kansas ban on gay marriage was expected to be overturned after the Supreme Court announcement. Kansas is in the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals, which struck down bans in Oklahoma and Utah

• Crabtree said he was bound by the 10th Circuit decision and ruled that Kansas must allow gay couples to marry and recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples performed elsewhere

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______________Victoria Jones

TRNS’ William McDonald, Nicholas Salazar, Leah Schwarting, Paayal Zaveri and Washington Desk contributed to this report

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